Online Casinos : Simulating Real World Play
Many people around the world play at online casinos, and that’s fine if it’s your only source of gambling. However, online casinos are nowhere near as close to the real thing when it comes to simulation. Take Craps for example. The casino determines what number rolls by using a random number generator. However, just how random is random? If you have been in a casino, you know that every single person at a table has a unique rolling pattern. Some stack the dice and casually vault them into the air.
Others shake them up and rocket them to the back wall, while other frequently launch the dice off the table or fall short of the back wall. There are even players who change their rolling pattern every roll or point. An online casino does not have the ability to simulate this. Sure, they can manipulate the random number generator, but there’s still no way to accurately simulate table action. Having programmed, I know that a random number generator is not all that random.
Worse, if the computer simply “picks a number”, it is not even a proper setup to being with. Let’s keep looking at Craps. Does the casino have a random number generator that simply picks a number between one and twelve? If so, all the numbers have an even shot at coming out, which is against true probability. Perhaps they list out all probable combinations and then the computer selects one. This would be a little more accurate, probability wise, but it still lacks the real randomness of live action—and weird events are more likely to ensue. What I’m about to tell you is true and happens more frequently that one would imagine. A tester recently played at an online casino (Craps) to monitor number frequency in the field. Within the span of just 150 rolls, the computer rolled 11 non-field numbers in a row and then followed it up a handful of rolls later by rolling 12 non-field numbers in a row. What’s the big deal you ask? Well, first, the field has a 44.5% chance of winning on every roll and second; the probability of throwing 11 non-field rolls in a row is .
0015%. The probability of throwing 12 non-field numbers in a row is .0008%. These events should happen once every 667 rolls and once every 1176 rolls respectively, yet both where seen within a handful of rolls from each other within the 150 rolls monitored. But wait, there’s more. Within these same, now historic, 150 rolls, a six was not thrown for 13-16 rolls 5 times. The probability of not throwing a six 13 times is 14.5% (9% for 16 rolls)—this happened 5 times in 150 rolls. The same happened to the eight—in fact—there were two instances where an eight was not thrown for 18-20 times. The probability of this happening is 5-7% and it happened twice.
When you add all of these things together, you get a more accurate picture of just how unrealistic random number generators are for simulating real casino action. I am not trying to scare you away from playing. In fact, money can be made and fun can be had at online casinos. However, you need to realize that you are playing in a different environment with different rules. You can’t go chasing bets thinking they are overdue, mathematically, to come in, because this is a different world with a different way of producing outcomes. Playing strategies that you would use in a real live casino might not be applicable in an online casino. Read more at WiseBettor.com.
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